Gaming: Can the WAC maintain its ATS Superiority?
NCAA Football Betting Lines
07/23/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Last season was quite a turnaround for the Western Athletic Conference, as the league's nine teams covered 21 of their 36 non-conference games (with two pushes) for an impressive 61% winning percentage.
This straight off the heels of a disastrous 13-22 mark in '08, a season in which the league finished 5-14 against the spread against Bowl Championship Series competition. This past year was the first since 2004 that the WAC ended a season above the .500 mark (8-7) versus BCS schools.
The question now becomes: Can the league continue its success, or will it falter with increased expectations? I fully expect the former to hold true, especially since only one team (Louisiana Tech) returns fewer starters than a season ago. In addition, the WAC is the only conference that returns every single starting quarterback.
As for betting within the league, favorites are only 55-52-1 over the last three years so it's difficult to follow specific trends on a weekly basis. However, Boise State has completed three straight years of winning records as a conference favorite with a combined ATS total of 15-8. Keep in mind, though, that 2010 will be the Broncos' final season in the WAC so the other eight squads might come at them with more intensity than in previous years.
Time now to take a team-by-team look at the league with predicted straight-up overall and conference records for those wagering on over/unders for total victories.
9) SAN JOSE STATE - The Spartans were an abysmal 1-9-1 ATS last season. They are 3-12-1 ATS in conference play the last two years.
Offense - San Jose State's offensive production has gone backwards each of the last four years, culminating with a 13.8 points per game average last season. The same cast of characters returns in 2010 along with the added pressure of learning new schemes. I don't expect much improvement, especially with trips to Alabama, Wisconsin and Utah to start the FBS schedule.
Defense - After giving up 21.6 ppg two years ago, the defense allowed 34.5 last year, the first season since '05 the unit was gashed for more than 30 ppg. In addition, only one team in the country allowed more rushing yards per game and that was 0-12 Eastern Michigan. Even with eight starters back, this is one of the worst defenses in the nation.
Prediction - There's only one way to go after a 1-9-1 ATS record so look for a few more covers, particularly in conference play. (3-9, 1-7)
8) NEW MEXICO STATE - The Aggies went 5-6-1 ATS last year but finished up with a 3-1 mark in their last four games. They are 2-7 ATS as home underdogs the last two seasons.
Offense - New Mexico State's offense was even worse than San Jose State's, finishing dead last nationally in scoring at an 11.5 ppg clip. However, there were signs of progress as the Aggies averaged 4.2 yards per carry in league play, up from 1.1 the season before. New offensive coordinator Mike Dunbar will rev up the passing game so look for the team to average close to 20 ppg in 2010.
Defense - The Aggies came into last year without their top six tacklers, and it showed as opposing rushers picked up 5.6 ypc. This season, six of the top eight tacklers return. Expect the defense to allow fewer than 30 ppg for the first time since '03.
Prediction - New Mexico State has not had a winning ATS record since '04, but that could change this season. (4-8, 2-6)
7) IDAHO - The Vandals were 7-5-1 ATS in '09 but went 0-5-1 over the final six games. They are 15-7-2 to the over since the start of the '08 season.
Offense - Only Auburn and Arkansas had a higher increase in scoring than Idaho last year. However, don't be shocked if the Vandals' 32.7 ppg mark takes a huge hit as the offense returns only four starters. In addition, the o-line brings back fewer than 20 career starts.
Defense - Despite reaching the postseason, the defense ranked dead last in the league in scoring, allowing 36 ppg. The Vandals were also 119th nationally in opponent third-down conversion percentage. Ten starters return this year so some improvement is expected. But remember, Idaho has allowed an average of 38 ppg in its five-year WAC history.
Prediction - Last season was the Vandals' first above-.500 ATS campaign since '02. Given that, I anticipate a giant tumble in 2010. (3-9, 2-6)
6) UTAH STATE - The Aggies went 8-3 ATS in '09. They are 16-8 ATS in WAC play and 14-5 as away underdogs the last three years.
Offense - Spring injuries to running back Robert Turbin and receiver Stanley Morrison will have significant ramifications for Utah State's offense. Not only do the Aggies lose their star tailback, but they will now be without five of their top six pass-catchers from a year ago.
Defense - This unit ranked seventh in league play last year in both scoring and total defense. However, 11 of the top 14 tacklers return and the team will now be in the second year of the new system.
Prediction - Quarterback Diondre Borel will not have as many weapons as he had a year ago, so don't expect another 3-0 ATS record in non-conference play. (3-9, 2-6)
5) HAWAII - The Warriors were an even 6-6 ATS last year but were 4-2 over the final six games. They are 3-1 ATS as road favorites the last two years.
Offense - The Warriors ranked seventh in the league in scoring last season, averaging only 23 ppg. Even though they finished first in league play in passing yardage, only Nevada and New Mexico State had lower completion percentages. Furthermore, with 16 fumbles in only 292 rushing attempts, they must do a better job holding onto the football.
Defense - For a unit that returned just one starter, it was an amazing achievement to finish fourth in league play in total defense. This season could be even better as seven starters come back, including the entire secondary.
Prediction - Hawaii will open the season 0-2 ATS with losses to both USC and Army. (6-7, 4-4)
4) NEVADA - The Wolf Pack finished 7-6 ATS last year, but went 4-0 to end the year. Chris Ault's club is an incredible 19-4 as a home favorite over the last six years.
Offense - Nevada was 0-4 SU in games that Colin Kaepernick threw at least 25 passes and 8-1 in the others. With nine starters coming back, expect another phenomenal season, particularly against the rest of the conference.
Defense - The Wolf Pack ranked last in the league in pass defense last year, and the secondary will once again be an area of concern with the loss of both safeties. Until the team figures out how to defend the pass, play the over (10-5 in the last 15 conference games).
Prediction - Nevada's style works well inside the WAC but not against the rest of the country as its 1-8 ATS mark in the last nine out-of-conference games points out. (8-5, 5-3)
3) LOUISIANA TECH - The Bulldogs went 7-4 ATS last year. They are 6-0 ATS as home underdogs the last three years, but 9-28-1 ATS off a SU loss in the last eight.
Offense - With head coach Sonny Dykes and offensive coordinator Tony Franklin in charge, look for Louisiana Tech to average over 30 ppg for the first time since '01. Four offensive line starters return to an attack that rang up 29 ppg a season ago, and this year's talent level has increased with transfers from both Tennessee and LSU.
Defense - With the coaching change that took place over the winter, it's important to keep in mind that defensive coordinator Tommy Spangler was retained. The defense allowed only 21 touchdowns last year, tying Boise State for the top spot in league play.
Prediction - Go with the over in each of Louisiana Tech's first four FBS games. (7-5, 5-3)
2) FRESNO STATE - The Bulldogs went 6-5-1 ATS in '09, but 1-3 in their final four games. They are just 2-10-1 as home favorites over the last four years.
Offense - Fresno State has always had solid rushing numbers so even with Ryan Mathews off to the NFL, the running game will not suffer as much as people might think. Tough-as-nails quarterback Ryan Colburn was impressive in his first season as the starter completing 61% of his tosses with 19 touchdowns. Look for even better numbers in his senior campaign.
Defense - Opposing league rushers averaged an amazing 6.7 ypc against Fresno State last season. However, that number should drop to below 5.0 if the defense can stay injury free. New defensive coordinator Randy Stewart did a fine job in '07, a year in which the Bulldogs' scoring average dropped a point despite only three returning starters. This year, seven come back.
Prediction - After playing seven road games each of the last two years, the Bulldogs get seven at home in 2010. (10-2, 7-1)
1) BOISE STATE - The Broncos went 8-5 ATS last season. They are 7-2 ATS in their last nine non-conference matchups, and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as road favorites.
Offense - Despite a shaky spring, Kellen Moore is still one of the top quarterbacks in the game. Throw in nine other returning starters to an offense that averaged over 40 ppg and the sky is the limit for the Broncos.
Defense - Only two starters returned to the front seven last season, causing the rush defense to allow over 4.5 ypc in league play. This year, all seven are back. It's hard to imagine the Broncos defense can improve after giving up just 17 ppg last season, but it could happen since the defense loses just two of 28 lettermen.
Prediction - Boise State is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 games. Look for another outstanding season in 2010 both SU and ATS, beginning with a win and cover versus Virginia Tech. (12-0, 8-0)
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - While the Chicago White Sox continue to try and fend off Detroit and Minnesota in the American League Central standings, all eyes are on general manager Kenny Williams to make something happen before next Saturda
<< White Sox' Buehrle tries to end longtime woes against A's
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Though they still own the best record in baseball since
June 9, the Chicago White Sox have hit a bit of a rough patch of their last
few games. The timing couldn't be worse for starter Mark Buehrle, who has yet
to taste succes
<< Rays hope to end epic winless drought in Cleveland
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Trying to remain in the hunt for first place in the
American League East, one would think the Tampa Bay Rays would welcome a trip
to Cleveland to face the last-place Indians.
Problem is, Tampa Bay hasn't won in 17 straight
<< Wood hopes for some support in Reds' clash with Astros
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In a perfect world, Cincinnati Reds starter Travis Wood
would be trying for his third straight winning start. However, no offensive
support in a pair of 1-0 setbacks has the 23-year-old still in search of his
first major leag
<< Rangers seeking to stretch lead over Angels in AL West
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Runs were hard to come by for the Los Angeles Angels of
Anaheim in Thursday's opener of a four-game series versus the hosting Texas
Rangers. They'll need a quick fix tonight, given Joe Saunders' career-long
struggles against
Wigan, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Promising Hamilton midfielder James McArthur has joined Wigan for an undisclosed transfer fee. The 22-year-old has penned a four-year contract at the DW Stadium, where he will team up with former Accies c
Canadian MLB Report: Axford making most of chance >>
Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Multiple Canadian-born hurlers were
supposed to be impact pitchers for their respective teams in 2010, but the
first half of the year didn't exactly reflect those predictions. On the other
hand, some have ste
Cubs activate P Schlitter; option P Stevens >>
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago Cubs have activated right-handed
pitcher Brian Schlitter from the 15-day disabled list.
He was placed on the DL on July 7, retroactive to July 3, with a right
shoulder impingement.
Sch
Bengals sign third-round pick Ghee >>
Cincinnati, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Cincinnati Bengals have signed
cornerback Brandon Ghee, the team's third-round draft choice.
He was the 96th overall selection in the 2010 NFL Draft.
The 6-0, 192-pound Ghee made 56 tackles,
Wanted: A must-see player for Clippers >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rapper Young Jeezy once boasted that mentioning his name
would bring an entire city out.
That same drawing power can be heralded by LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, Dwight
Howard and a just handful of other players in the NBA.
Horse Betting
(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).
The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.
With all the style and sex appeal of Las Vegas, MySportsbook.com is without a doubt the coolest online sportsbook on the Internet.
At MySportsbook.com, players get to enjoy the luxury of a five star sportsbook, a racebook that's second to none, a casino with all the bells and whistles, and a swanky new poker room!
MySportsbook also has a unique games room where players can go head-to-head for cash playing such things as sports trivia and fantasy games, popular arcade games, word and memory games, and more.
Throughout MySportsbook, visitors and members are treated to informative sports news and sports betting stats Sports matchup reports and sports betting trends as well as entertaining columns written by colorful personalities.
The management at MySportsbook has been in the online gaming business since 1997. As a result of this success, management has earned a coveted spot on eGaming Review's "Power 50" list, which recognizes leaders in online gaming.
With MySportsbook.com , management's goal is to provide players with an exciting place to experience the thrill of gaming in a safe and trustworthy environment.
Thus, players at MySportsbook are assured of getting top notch customer service while having a wickedly good time.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.