Niners Need Win Over Cardinals, Help From Seahawks
Football Betting Lines
12/22/2006 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - If any member of the San Francisco 49ers' player roster, coaching staff, or front office claims not to be paying attention to the out- of-town scoreboard on Sunday afternoon, they're lying.
While the 49ers (6-8) do battle with the Arizona Cardinals (4-10) at Monster Park, the NFC West-leading Seattle Seahawks (8-6) will be entertaining the San Diego Chargers (12-2) roughly 800 miles to the north. A victory for the Niners coupled with a loss for the Seahawks will give Week 17 definite playoff meaning for the San Francisco franchise, which is major news for an organization just recently removed from a stretch of 35 losses in 45 games.
The new-found excitement in the City by the Bay comes on the heels of last Thursday's 24-14 win at Seattle, a victory that completed the Niners' home- and-home sweep of the reigning NFC Champions and kept Mike Nolan's team in the hunt for the NFC West title. If things go according to plan Sunday, San Francisco would be one game back with one to play.
The 49ers travel to meet Denver in Week 17, while the Seahawks take one of the NFL's longest trips to Tampa Bay. Though it is conceivable that an 8-8 San Francisco team could earn a Wild Card berth through some convoluted tie- breaking scenario, a two-game stretch of losses for Seattle is the least mind- bending way for the 49ers to get back to the postseason for the first time since 2002.
Without a win over Arizona, however, the point will be moot, and the Niners are not sufficiently dominant at this stage to overlook any opponent. The Cardinals also have a win of recent vintage over the Seahawks, a 27-21 victory in Week 14, but Dennis Green's club followed up a 3-1 stretch with last Sunday's 37-20 home loss to the Broncos.
SERIES HISTORY
San Francisco has a 17-13 lead in its all-time series with the Cardinals, but has dropped three in a row to Arizona. The Cardinals opened University of Phoenix Stadium with a 34-27 win over San Francisco in Week 1, and also swept a pair of games against its NFC West rival last season. The Niners were 17-10 losers when Arizona visited Monster Park in Week 13. Prior to 2005, the 49ers had prevailed in eight of the previous nine head-to-head meetings. The Niners won by identical 31-28 marks, both in overtime, in a 2004 home-and-home.
Green is 5-7 in his career against San Francisco, including 3-2 since taking over in Arizona in 2004. Green's Vikings were 38-22 losers to the 49ers in a 1997 NFC Divisional Playoff. Green was an assistant with San Francisco in 1979, and again from 1986 to 1988. San Francisco's Nolan is 0-3 against both Green and the Cardinals as a head coach.
CARDINALS OFFENSE VS. 49ERS DEFENSE
It would take an extraordinary effort in his final two games, but Cardinals rookie quarterback Matt Leinart (2385 passing yards, 10 TD, 12 INT) is within reachable distance of the 3,000-yard plateau, which would make him the first Arizona signal-caller since Jake Plummer in 2001 to hit that number. Peyton Manning is the only other quarterback in NFL history to go over 3,000 in his rookie season, doing so in 16 games as opposed to what would be 13 for Leinart. The 2004 Heisman winner, who has a 400-yard game to his credit already this season, would need to average 307.5 passing yards in his final two games to break 3,000. Last week, Leinart threw for 214 yards with two interceptions, helping wideout Anquan Boldin (75 receptions, 4 TD) cross the 1,000-yard barrier for the third time in his four-year career. Fellow receiver Larry Fitzgerald (61 receptions, 4 TD), who had a team-best 77 yards on five grabs against Denver, needs 180 yards over his final two contests to break 1,000 for a second straight year. Third receiver Bryant Johnson (33 receptions, 4 TD) has done a solid job all season. The Arizona line has surrendered 32 sacks on the campaign, including three last Sunday.
The 49ers rank just 27th in the league against the pass (222.3 yards per game), but the secondary has shown a propensity for playmaking during the season's second half. Cornerback Shawntae Spencer (55 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) and safety Mark Roman (53 tackles, 1 INT) both had interceptions off of the Seahawks' Matt Hasselbeck last week, and corner Walt Harris (52 tackles, 6 INT, 1 sack), who ranks among NFL leaders with six picks, had a forced fumble. The pass rush ranks near the bottom of the league with just 29 sacks, but did break through to Hasselbeck three times in a winning effort. Rookie pass rusher Manny Lawson (50 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 1 INT) notched one of the sacks. Linebacker Brandon Moore (6.5 sacks) and defensive lineman Bryant Young (5.5 sacks) are tops on the team at getting to the quarterback.
Although it looked at times this season like he might not reach the milestone, Cardinals running back Edgerrin James (988 rushing yards, 5 TD, 37 receptions) is just 12 yards shy of becoming Arizona's first 1,000-yard rusher since Adrian Murrell in 1998. James failed to extend his string of 100-yard games to three last week, when the Broncos limited him to 63 yards on 14 carries, but James did score his fifth touchdown of the year in the game. The ex-Colt rushed 26 times for 73 yards and a score against the 49ers in Week 1. Backup Marcel Shipp (28 rushing yards, 3 TD), who made headlines with a three- touchdown game against the Rams in Week 13, missed the Denver tilt with sore ribs but is set to return on Sunday. The Cardinals are tied for 30th in the league in rushing offense (79.8 yards per game), and dead last in yards per carry (3.1).
The 49ers rank 18th in the league against the rush (121.3 yards per game), and come off a week in which they held reigning NFL MVP Shaun Alexander to 73 yards on 23 carries (3.2 yards per attempt). The push was led by the front line, where Young (47 tackles) and fellow lineman Melvin Oliver (37 tackles) combined for 10 tackles. Moore paced the linebackers with 10 stops of his own, and that line of defense will get a break if Derek Smith (66 tackles), who led San Francisco in stops before suffering a hamstring injury against the Saints in Week 13, is able to return. Smith is regarded as questionable for this week.
49ERS OFFENSE VS. CARDINALS DEFENSE
The ascendancy of 49ers running back Frank Gore (1491 rushing yards, 53 receptions, 7 TD) continued on Tuesday, when the second-year-pro was selected to start for the NFC in the 2007 Pro Bowl. Gore leads the NFC in rushing as Week 16 begins, and is 80 yards shy of breaking the franchise single-season record of 1,570, set by Garrison Hearst in 1998. The Miami-Florida product has gone over 100 yards in five of his last six games, including his 29-carry, 144-yard, one-touchdown effort in Seattle last Thursday. Gore, who also had a touchdown catch last week, began his season with an 87-yard, two-TD game against the Cardinals in Week 1, but also lost a fumble in that defeat. Short- yardage back Michael Robinson's (116 rushing yards, 2 TD, 7 receptions) only carry against the Seahawks went for 33 yards and set up a Joe Nedney field goal.
Gore will be operating against an Arizona defense that ranks just 16th in the league against the run (119.9 yards per game), but did a credible job against Denver and its vaunted zone-blocking scheme last Sunday. Broncos running backs Tatum Bell and Mike Bell combined for just 90 yards on 34 carries (2.7 yards per carry), though the latter Bell did help seal the Cardinals' epitaph with two fourth-quarter touchdown runs. The linebacking crew of Gerald Hayes (93 tackles, 3 INT, 1 sack) in the middle and Orlando Huff (57 tackles) and Karlos Dansby (65 tackles, 5 sacks) on the outside was extremely active in the loss, with Huff posting a game-high 12 tackles and Hayes and Dansby notching eight stops each. Tackles Darnell Dockett (49 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT) and Kendrick Clancy (24 tackles, 1 sack) will be among those looking to slow Gore at the point of attack.
San Francisco quarterback Alex Smith (2506 passing yards, 15 TD, 14 INT) didn't put up eye-popping numbers in last week's win over the Seahawks, but his fourth-quarter performance was held up as a coming-of-age moment. Smith led three touchdown drives to turn a 7-3 deficit to a 24-7 lead, throwing back-to-back scoring strikes to Vernon Davis (13 receptions, 3 TD) and Frank Gore and capping the night with a back-breaking 18-yard TD run in the waning moments. For the night, the 2005 No. 1 overall pick completed 14-of-25 passes for 162 yards and two scores. No. 1 wideout Antonio Bryant (40 receptions, 3 TD) had a quiet evening with two catches for 16 yards, but No. 2 receiver Arnaz Battle (48 receptions, 3 TD) came up big with a career-high 97 yards on five grabs. Bryant went for 114 yards against Arizona in Week 1, but has just one more 100-yard game since. Davis has a TD in each of his last two contests. The San Francisco offensive line has surrendered 27 sacks on the year, but did not give one up last week.
Smith should be able to find some holes in an Arizona defense that ranks 30th in the NFL (235.9 yards per game) against aerial attacks, and allowed Broncos quarterback Jay Cutler to have the game of his young career last Sunday. Cutler threw for 261 yards and a pair of touchdowns with an interception versus the Cardinals, with his 54-yard touchdown pass to Javon Walker early in the first quarter setting the tone for the Arizona loss. Cornerbacks Antrel Rolle (81 tackles) and David Macklin (34 tackles, 1 INT) will have to do a better job against the likes of Bryant and Battle this week, and safeties Adrian Wilson (76 tackles, 4 sacks, 4 INT) and Robert Griffith (66 tackles, 3 INT) must lend the requisite support. Griffith had the team's only interception off of Cutler last week. Wilson and receiver Anquan Boldin were both named to the NFC Pro Bowl squad on Tuesday. The Arizona pass rush is led by ends Chike Okeafor (40 tackles, 6.5 sacks) and Antonio Smith (24 tackles, 2.5 sacks), both of whom registered an impact against Denver. Okeafor had a sack and two forced fumbles in the loss, and one of those fumbles was picked up by Smith for a four-yard touchdown return.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
The 49ers have yet to show that they can win a game they are widely expected to win, which makes this week's meeting with the Cardinals somewhat worrying. In order for San Francisco to take the next step, flexing its muscles against an inferior opponent on its home field is a must. Look for the 49ers to come out with enough intensity and confidence to overcome any mistakes that a still-young team will undoubtedly make, and look for Nolan's club to head into Week 17 with a shot to play in January.
Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: 49ers 20, Cardinals 15
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FOOTBALL BETTING : Crabtree's base deal: six years, $32 million
In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.
And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.
Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.
So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.
Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)
The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.
As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.
The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.
In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.
Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.
And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.
So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.
There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.
So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.
And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.
There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)
Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.
Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.
Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.
So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.
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FOOTBALL BETTING
After all the trouble that’s ensued since Braylon Edwards allegedly punched one of LeBron James’ homeboys in the face at a club, the Cleveland Browns have sent away their last remaining player of worth to the New York Jets. This is a great move for Dirty Sanchez and all, but it’s even better for the Knicks. Now Donnie Walsh can say, “You get to haunt Braylon Edwards with your posse if you sign here!” next summer.
Putting that aside for a moment, the move is a clear indication that the new-look Jets are gunning for the Super Bowl this year. I don’t think that New York thought that Dirty Sanchez was going to be such a rock star. With a 75.2 passer rating that was killed against the Jets, Sanchez is doing an admirable job of managing games and putting the Jets in a position to win. The defense has been the major story in New York thus far, but the acquisition of Braylon Edwards makes this offense loaded with talent that can dent any defense…as long as Dirty Sanchez continues his meteoric rise.
Thus far, Edwards has been a non-factor in the NFL piling up just 139 receiving yards on 10 catches. He has yet to find the endzone, and with the Browns mired in the most unsexy quarterback controversy of all time (Anderson vs. Quinn...yawn), there going nowhere fast. Edwards is two seasons removed from a career year which saw him catch 80 passes for 1,289 yards and 16 touchdowns when the Browns were the spread killing monsters of 2007. In 2008, injuries slowed the receiver down to just 873 yards and three touchdowns though he played in all 16 games.
So that being said, we really don’t know if Braylon Edwards is just a flash in the pan, or a legit threat. At 6-foot-3 and 215 pounds, he is a prototypical receiver. But he’s also shown a strange, and unwarranted, talent for dropping passes. Lining up opposite Jericho Cotchery, a speed demon with 23 catches, 356 yards and a single touchdown, may give Braylon the open looks he needs. A change of scenery may also rejuvenate the star receiver.
In return, the Browns will receive Chansi Stuckey, online football betting a special teams player you’ve never heard of and a pair of draft picks. That’s a tall order for a guy whose only real value right now is in his name, and it shows no promise to the Browns that they can rebuild around those acquisitions. Braylon was the only reason to hope for the Browns to go 3-14 SU this year. Without him, they don’t have a single guy on offense that can scare any team.
For the Jets, it’s a response to the pounding that they took at the hand of the Saints. Thomas Jones and Leon Washington have averaged around 4.0 yards per carry each on the ground, but striking a fair balance between the passing and rushing attacks in New York has been a struggle. You have to believe that the trio of Dustin Keller, Jericho Cotchery and Braylon Edwards will give Sanchez the weapons he needs to unleash through the air. Theoretically, that would open up holes for the rushing game. But the proposed public option health care plan works in theory too. We need to see the proof in the pudding before we start loading up mega bucks on the New York Jets to take the AFC.
The one wrinkle in this whole thing is that Braylon could very well be suspended by the league for disciplinary action due to his “brawl” with LeBron’s friend. If that’s the case, the Jets may have to bench him for a few games leaving them with a somewhat depleted receiving corps for a few games. Also, this is a guy who gets in fights with people at clubs. New York may not be the best place for him. Just sayin’.
The Jets have a long week before they meet the Miami Dolphins on Monday Night Football Betting in a virtual pick ‘em game. Braylon’s excess baggage may be a distraction, and his curiously low production may be what we should be expecting of him overall, but for the Jets, taking a chance to strike gold is well worth it. At the end of the year, they can simply just blame it on their rookie quarterback.
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