Safina, Serena, Venus reach Wimbledon semis
Tennis Betting Lines
06/30/2009 - Wimbledon, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Top-ranked Dinara Safina, two-time champion Serena Williams and five-time titlist Venus Williams were quarterfinal winners Tuesday at Wimbledon. Fourth-seeded Russian Elena Dementieva also won on Tuesday, as the top-four seeds all made it into the semifinals here.
Thursday's semis at the All England Club, which will both pit an American against a Russian, will have Safina facing the third-seeded Venus and a second-seeded Serena taking on Dementieva. Serena and Venus are former world No. 1s, which means three of the four semifinalists have held the top ranking.
Venus has won the last two titles here, including a victory over her younger sister in last year's finale.
The French Open and Australian Open runner-up Safina was tested by rising German Sabine Lisicki on a hot day at the AEC, as the big Russian prevailed 6-7 (5-7), 6-4, 6-1 on Centre Court.
Lisicki broke serve early for a 2-1 lead and served for the opening set, but Safina won the first three points of that 10th game and broke to tie it. The set went to a tiebreak and Lisicki won four straight points to grab a 4-1 edge.
A double-fault by Safina gave Lisicki a 6-3 advantage, but the Russian blasted a forehand winner and Lisicki missed an easy forehand at the net that would have given her the set. With a chance to get back into the tiebreak on serve, Safina committed her seventh double-fault to drop the first set and slammed her racquet in disgust.
The second set remained on serve until Safina broke for a 4-3 edge. She nearly gave the break back serving in the 10th game, but Lisicki slipped while setting up for a backhand on break point and the mishit gave Safina another chance. The Russian managed to hold serve and force a decisive third set.
Unfortunately for Lisicki, the German simply ran out of gas in the final set, as Safina cruised in the last seven games by breaking Lisicki's serve four times in as many tries. The first three games of the set all resulted in breaks of serve, but Safina would assume control by holding serve and then breaking for a comfortable 4-1 advantage.
The big-serving Lisicki then called for a trainer, as she had her legs iced while laying face-down on the court.
Safina then held for a 5-1 cushion despite misfiring for three straight double faults at one point, and she broke her German counterpart in the next game by converting on her first match point when Lisicki missed the court with one final errant backhand.
The 23-year-old Safina moved on in 2 hours, 28 minutes despite piling up a whopping 15 double faults. She did, however, tally six breaks, compared to only two for Lisicki, who wound up out-acing Safina 12-0.
Safina, who does not like to play on grass, will now perform in her first- ever Wimbledon semifinal. She's been the runner-up at three of the last five Grand Slam events. Safina lost to fellow Russian Svetlana Kuznetsova in the French Open final four weeks ago and succumbed to Serena in the Aussie Open final back in January.
The reigning Aussie Open and U.S. Open champion Serena blew past eighth-seeded Belarusian Victoria Azarenka 6-2, 6-3 on Centre Court. The 27-year-old Serena reached her sixth Wimbledon semifinal by dousing Azarenka in 1 hour, 13 minutes.
Serena took control of the opening set against Azarenka by breaking her Belarusian counterpart for a 4-2 lead. The American then held and broke again, with a set-ending forehand winner.
In the second set, Azarenka recorded her first break of the day to assume a short-lived 3-2 lead, as she was unable to consolidate the break. Serena would break right back to level the stanza at 3-all.
Following a hold, Serena notched another big service break for a 5-3 advantage and then closed out the match by holding her big serve to advance. Serena set- up the only match point she would need with a forehand winner, and converted on it with another forehand winner that just caught the baseline.
A clean Serena committed a mere seven unforced errors, fired nine aces among her 26 winners and broke Azarenka four times, while the Belarusian settled for only one break en route to defeat.
Venus, seeking a third straight and sixth overall Wimbledon title, cruised to a lopsided 6-1, 6-2 triumph over 11th-seeded Pole Agnieszka Radwanska in a brisk 68-minute affair. The seven-time Grand Slam champ has yet to drop a set in her five matches at this fortnight and has won 33 straight sets here, dating back to 2007.
There was not much drama for Venus, who won the first six points on the way to a 5-0 lead in the first set. Radwanska finally held serve in the sixth game, but Williams quickly put it away in the next game with an ace on set point.
The total domination in a 27-minute first set included four aces for Venus and 14 total winners. Radwanska had just three winners and won only two points against Venus' potent serve.
That quickly changed early in the second set, as Radwanska won eight of the first nine points to open a quick 2-0 lead. Venus, who double-faulted to give Radwanska a break in the second game, broke right back in the third and held serve to level the set.
Venus broke serve again for a 3-2 lead, winning a marathon fifth game with a brilliant point at the net, and Radwanska never recovered. The American finished the match with a perfectly-placed forehand winner.
The 29-year-old Venus is now 67-9 all-time on grass.
The mighty Williams sisters have combined for seven of the last nine Wimbledon titles, with Venus capturing five and Serena two. The two met last year in the championship match, a 7-5, 6-4 victory for Venus. Both of Serena's titles at the All England Club came in back-to-back finals against her sister in 2002 and 2003.
Venus is 5-2 in seven Wimbledon finals, while Serena is 2-2.
The two-time major runner-up and reigning Olympic gold medalist Dementieva throttled Italian veteran Francesca Schiavone 6-2, 6-2 on Court 1 on Day 8. The weak-serving Russian moved on in 66 minutes, despite piling up nine double faults. Dementieva did, however, record five service breaks in nine tries, while being broken only once by the 29-year-old Schiavone.
The 27-year-old Dementieva will play in her second career Wimbledon semifinal, with both coming over the last two years. The Russian lost to Venus in last year's final four here.
On Thursday, Safina and Venus will meet for a fourth time, with the American leading the all-time series 2-1. The Russian beat Venus in Rome earlier this season.
In the other semi, Serena and Dementieva will square off for a fifth time, with the Russian holding a 3-1 lead in their lifetime set. The American bested the Russian in this year's Aussie Open semis.
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How to bet pro football
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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Super Bowl XLIII Betting Odds
Super Bowl XLIII, the Arizona Cardinals and the Pittsburgh Steelers.Super Bowl XLIII is now set, the Arizona Cardinals and the Pittsburgh Steelers will meet each other on February 1st in Tampa's Raymond James Stadium to battle it out for the coveted Lombardi Trophy. The game kicks off at 6:00pm ET on NBC with announcers Al Michaels and John Madden covering the on-field action. Super Bowl XLIII betting odds at online bookmaker MySportsbook.com have the Steelers listed as an early -6.5 against the spread favorite.Super Bowl XLIII Betting Odds
Pittsburgh earned their passage to the big game by beating their division rival, the Baltimore Ravens, 23-14 in yesterday's AFC Championship Game. The Steelers jumped on Baltimore early, building a 13-0 first half lead, and never let up on their way to a fairly easy win. Although the Ravens did close to within two points in the fourth quarter, it never appeared as if they had enough offense to pull off the upset.
The Steelers dominating defense held Baltimore to a total of 198 yards while allowing them to convert just three third downs in 13 attempts. Pittsburgh also forced quarterback Joe Flacco into three interceptions, one of which safety Troy Polamalu returned fourty yards for a touchdown.
The Cardinals, by far the playoff team with the longest odds to reach Super Bowl XLIII, did so yesterday with a 32-25 upset of the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC Championship. Arizona charged out of the gates and built a 24-6 halftime lead that had the Eagles venerable defense reeling. Quarterback Kurt Warner and wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald did most of the damage, connecting on three first half touchdowns.
Arizona, however, could not sustain their momentum and the Eagles took a 25-24 with 10:45 left to play in the fourth. The Cardinals, with the franchise's first Super Bowl appearance hanging in the balance, mounted a fourteen play, 72 yard touchdown drive that consumed 7:52 off the clock. Warner hit running back Tim Hightower on a short screen for the go-ahead, game clinching score that will forever live in Cardinal infamy.
MySportsbook.com's Super Bowl XLIII Betting Odds:
Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5 (-110), Over 46.5 (-110), -260 (Money line)
Arizona Cardinals +6.5 (-110), Under 46.5 (-110), +220 (Money line)
Matt Foust won both of his conference championship plays yesterday and he is ready to serve up plenty of Super Bowl action. Each individual play costs $15.00, however, MySportsbook.com recommends purchasing Matt's NFL Playoff Package which includes all of Matt's Super Bowl props and picks from just $45.00.
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